It’s clay-court chess time in Rome, and we’ve got a third-round matchup that screams “don’t blink.” Elise Mertens and Jessica Pegula are squaring off in what promises to be a cerebral baseline battle, with both women bringing consistency, grit, and sneaky power to the Foro Italico.
Pegula, the world No. 5, has shaken off a sluggish start to her 2025 season and is looking more like the Pegula we know—relentlessly solid, tactically sharp, and annoyingly hard to hit through. Her flat groundstrokes and ability to redirect pace make her a tricky customer on clay, even if it’s not her best surface. She’s yet to drop a set in Rome, and confidence is quietly brewing.
Enter Mertens: the unseeded disruptor. The Belgian is always lurking in these draws, ready to spoil the party. Her court coverage, variety, and doubles prowess make her a slippery opponent on clay, where constructing points matters most. She already notched a quality win over Daria Kasatkina, and her momentum is real.
Still, Pegula owns the head-to-head 3–0, and that mental edge can’t be ignored. Mertens will need to serve big, mix up the pace, and avoid playing into Pegula’s strike zone. But if anyone loves an upset, it’s Elise.
Prediction: Pegula in three tight sets. Mertens will test her, but Pegula’s ability to absorb pressure and take her chances in big moments should edge her through. Don’t rule out a tiebreak thriller.
